New MLB Stats (beta)

The number of players from the 2005 Giants who this year have gone onto the DL or are no longer in Major League Baseball seems high. How can this be quantified? One way is to look at this year's output of significant players from last year's team — that is, using 2006 stats to analyze the 2005 team. The result is the GM Philpsophy Cume — a snapshot of a GM's approach to building a team.

Below we compare the Cumes of the World Series-bound 2002 Giants with the sub-.500 2005 Giants.


CUME OVERVIEW

The Cume is expressed as a set of common stats, using batting average, on-base-percentage, wins and losses, saves, and blown saves. We also look at the number of players who leave the Majors and who have gone on the DL.

These are some of the questions that are considered:

• How effective is the lineup offensively?
  
• What type of starting rotation did the GM pull together? How effective is it?
  
• How effective is the closer?
  
• Roughly how much playing time is lost to injury?
  
• Does the GM tend to sign players in their prime, or those that have nothing left in the tank, or a combination of both?
  
• How much does the GM rely on "quadruple-A" players?
  

FORWARD-LOOKING STATS

The use of forward-looking stats is key to making the Cume work. By compiling numbers of a team's most significant players from the next year, several important points are quantified in ways that alter the Cume:

• Players who are at the end of their careers may retire the following year and hurt the Cume.
  
• Players in their prime will still be playing the following year and will help the Cume.
  
• Out-of-shape of fragile players who end up on the DL frequently may hurt the Cume.
  
• Players who are sent to the minors — those below Major League quality — may hurt the Cume.
  

By using forward-looking stats, the results should also be more objective. When players change teams, some go to bad organizations, and some to good ones. But the quality of a player ultimately determines his stats. Barry Bonds in his prime would have had a high batting average and OBP no matter what team he played for; but a middle-of-the-pack hitter may benefit from those around him on a stronger team — or may suffer on a weaker team.

(The majority of performance evaluation in baseball is done using backwards-looking stats. For example, a baseball manager's philosophy of using a bullpen in a given season can be easily determined by looking back at how many times he made a call to the bullpen over the course of that year.)


CUME: THE RESULTS

Below are comparisons of the Cumes of the '02 and '05 Giants, using the following year's aggregate stats of significant players. Again, the number of players on the DL or out of Major League Baseball from the '05 team (as compared to the '02 team) is especially notable.

	2002 Giants	2005 Giants	MLB historical
	(using '03 stats)	(using '06 stats) a
Batting average	.251	.171	unknown
On-base percentage	.307	.228	--
Starting rotation won-loss record	63-26 (.708)	31-33 (.484) a	--
Wins-to-games ratio (starter wins/162 games)	.389	.191 a	--
Closer effectiveness	n/a b	10-10, 33 saves, 17 blown a	--
Total trips to disabled list	8	11	--
Players out of MLB (demoted/waived/released)	3	8	--

^a Pitching totals for 2005 (using '06 stats) are projected over 162 games using a multiplier = 2.077; all others actual numbers as of 6/28/06
^b Robb Nen on DL for entire 2003 season


CONCLUSION

A question that could be answered by this comaprison is: How does last year's approach of the Giants' front office — surrounding Barry Bonds with old veterans, AAA call-ups, and a mixed bag of starting pitchers — help or hurt the team's performance?

The numbers suggest a clear answer. This comparison of GM Philosophy Cumes points to differences in all areas of the game, and there seems to be a correlation between team performance and the number of players on the brink of retirement, demotion, or injury.

But context is key. As with any stat or group of stats, the higher the number of sample teams/years examined, the clearer the picture the Cume would be. For example, 100 wins by a team in one season does not mean anything; but when compared to all records of all teams over a span of several years, some context is provided, and the stat begins to take on meaning. As it is, such broad context is lacking in this example. However, with enough data, the Cume could be used to quantify the philosophy of any Major League Baseball team's front office in any given year.

Since this method is a work-in-progress, it has other flaws. It has no weighting mechanism to make a starting player's stats "heavier" than those of a bench player. Nor does it take into account the role of owners, trainers, performance enhancers, payroll limitations, etc.

While the methods used in determing the GM Philosophy Cume is unscientific, inexact, and (a few might say) somewhat of a hack job in terms of its focus, it does come close to the goal of painting a picture of a front office's approach to building a Major League baseball team.


APPENDIX A: HOW THE UNDERLYING STATS WERE COMPILED

Once significant players were chosen for a given year, batting averages and on-base percentages were gathered (from the following year) for position players, added up, and averaged. Since these averages include players who may no longer be playing in the Majors, a high number of retired, waived, or demoted players significantly hurt a given team's aggregate numbers.

For starting pitchers, won-loss records (from the following year) of each pitcher were compiled. In addition, we invented a stat called the "Wins-to-Games Ratio" (WGR), which reflects how many games a starting staff wins over a 162-game schedule. For example, a staff that wins 40 games over the course of a season would have a WGR of around .250.

For a team's closer(s), we looked at the won-loss record, number of saves, and number of blown saves.

"Significant players" are:

1. The starting eight starting position players on opening day
   
2. Non-starting position players who get significant playing time throughout the year
   
3. Starting position players who were obtained in trades
   
4. The Opening Day starting rotation
   
5. The bullpen's closer(s)
   

APPENDIX B: THE RAW DATA

2002 GIANTS
Based on 2003 stats

STARTERS
Livan Hernandez (MTL) 15-10
Kirk Rueter (SF) 10-5, on DL
Russ Ortiz (ATL) 21-7
Jason Schmidt (SF) 17-5, on DL
Ryan Jensen (SF) 0-0, demoted to minors

CLOSERS
Robb Nen (SF) DNP – on DL throughout 2003

INFIELDERS
JT Snow (SF) .273, .387 OBP, on DL
Jeff Kent (HOU) .297 .351 OBP, on DL
Rich Aurilia (SF) .277, .325 OBP, on DL
David Bell (PHI) .195, .246 OBP, on DL
Ramon Martinez (CHI) .283, .333 OBP
Pedro Feliz (SF) .247, .278 OBP
SUB-TOTAL: .263, .317 OBP

OUTFIELDERS
Barry Bonds (SF) .341, .529 OBP
Reggie Sanders (PIT) .285, .345 OBP
Kenny Lofton (PIT/CHI) .296, .352 OBP
Marvin Benard (SF) .197, .237 OBP, on DL
Shinjo (NYM) . 193, .238 OBP, sent to minors
Shawon Dunston DNP - retired after 2002 World Series
SUB-TOTAL: .219, .284 OBP

CATCHERS
Benito Santiago (SF) .279, .329 OBP
Yorvit Torrealba (SF) .260, .312 OBP
SUB-TOTAL: .270, .321 OBP

2002 TOTALS

Won-loss total (starting rotation): 63-26 (.708)
Wins-to-games ratio (starting rotation): .389
Closer totals: n/a
Position player totals: .251, .307 OBP
Players on DL (per incident): 8
Players in minors/waived/out of MLB: 3

2005 GIANTS
Based on 2006 stats (through June 28)

STARTERS
Jerome Williams (CHI) 0-2, demoted to minors
Jason Schmidt (SF) 6-3
Brett Tomko (LA) 6-6, on DL
Kirk Reuter DNP - cut by SF in 2005, retired
Noah Lowry (SF) 3-5, on DL

CLOSERS
Tyler Walker (SF/TB) 1-4, 10 saves, 4 BS, on DL
Benitez (SF) 4-1, 6 saves, 4 BS, on DL

INFIELDERS
JT Snow (BOS) .214, .340 OBP, cut by Red Sox in June
Pedro Feliz (SF) .267, .300 OBP
Lance Niekro (SF) .255, .303 OBP, on DL twice
Ray Durham (SF) .243, .329 OBP, on DL
Omar Vizquel (SF) .303, .386 OBP
Edgardo Alfonzo (LAA/TOR) .126, .200 OBP; cut by Angels in May, Jays in June
Deivi Cruz DNP - cut by STL in spring
SUB-TOTAL: .201, .265 OBP

OUTFIELDERS
Barry Bonds (SF) .253, .485 OBP
Moises Alou (SF) .311, .374 OBP, on DL twice
Jason Ellison (SF) .214, .279 OBP
Randy Winn (SF) .275, .347 OBP
Marquis Grissom DNP – retired after signing minor league contract with CHC
Michael Tucker DNP - cut by WSH, signed minor league contract with NYM
SUB-TOTAL: .176, .248 OBP

CATCHERS
Mike Matheny (SF) .231, .276 OBP, on DL
Yamid Haad DNP – Suspended for 50 games (steroids) in AAA
Yorvit Torrealba (COL) .173, .241 OBP, on DL
SUB-TOTAL: .135, .172 OBP

2005 TOTALS ¹

Won-loss total (starting rotation): 31-33 (.484)
Wins-to-games ratio (starting rotation): .191
Closer totals: 10-10, 33 saves, 17 blown saves
Position player totals ²: .171, .228 OBP
Players on DL (per incident) ²: 11
Players in minors/waived/out of MLB ²: 8

¹ Totals are projected using a multiplier of 2.077
² Actual numbers as of 6/28/06

Comments and suggestions are welcome.

© 2006 c. du lac