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The Chicago Cubs have signed 2006 free agent prize Alfonso Soriano for $136 million. Is he worth the price?

Just for kicks, we compared Soriano's career stats with those of another free agent, Shea Hillenbrand. (Hillenbrand and Soriano are roughly the same age and have a comparable number of plate appearances.) What we found was a bit surprising: While Soriano has more stolen bases and home runs over his career, Hillenbrand appears, in many instances, to be better in the clutch.

                                             Soriano                 Hillenbrand

Age                                    30 yrs, 10 mos          31 yrs, 3 mos

Games played                            961                      870
AB                                             3902                     3303
Total plate appearances        4126                     3436
Batting Avg.                          .280                     .287
OBP                                         .325                      .325
Walks                                       224                      133
2B                                            240                       197
3B                                             18                           13
HR                                           208                       104
RBI                                           560                       459
Stolen bases                           210                         16
Runs scored                            624                       438
PA* per run scored                6.61                       7.84
PA* per RBI                          7.37                      7.49
Avg w/runners on base     .270                     .291
Avg with RISP                      .252                     .277
Avg RISP/2 out                    .224                     .259
Chance of K w/RISP          28.2%                  19.1%

  *"PA": Plate appearances

(Note: Soriano, a former second baseman, led the league in outfield assists last year with 22)

While Soriano joined the 40-40 (HR/SB) club in 2005, his ability to hit homers and steal bases does not translate into a stat line which far exceeds a that of a player of Hillenbrand's caliber — a feat normally expected of a player who just signed the fifth-biggest contract in MLB history.

The question remains: If Alfonso Soriano is worth $136 million, what's Shea Hillenbrand worth? $90 million? $110 million?

Or did the Cubs get caught up in The Hype?

© 2006 c. du lac

posted by xtian  # 8:32 AM 0 comments